Probability Models for Economic Decisions, Second Edition

基本信息

Edited by：Roger Myerson

Publisher：The MIT Press

Published：17 Dec 2019

Language：English

Format Hardback：568 pages

ISBN-10 : 0262043122

ISBN-13 : 978-0262043120

Weight：998 g

Dimensions：191 x 32 x 237（mm）

頁面參數僅供參考，具體以實物為準

書籍簡介

這本教科書提供了一個使用概率模型分析風險和經濟決策的介紹。它採用一種邊做邊學的方法，教學生使用電子表格來表示和模擬不確定性，並分析這種不確定性對經濟決策的影響。應用商業和經濟學專業的學生使用Excel電子表格可以更容易地掌握較難的分析方法。

這本書涵蓋了概率論的基本思想，如何模擬隨機變量，以及如何通過蒙特卡羅模擬計算條件概率。前四章使用大量的概率分佈來模擬一系列問題，包括工人效率、市場進入、石油勘探、重複投資和主觀信念啟發。然後書涵蓋了相關和多元正態隨機變量;條件期望;決策變量的優化，包括信息的戰略價值、決策樹、博弈論和逆向選擇風險分擔與融資;增長的動態模型;到達的動態模型;和模型的風險。

新材料在這個第二版包括兩個新的章節在附加的動態模型和模型風險;每一章都有新的章節;許多新的結束語練習;涵蓋了仿真模型工作流程、概率選舉預測模型和實物期權等主題。這本書配備了Simtools，這是一款貫穿全書的開源免費軟件，可以讓學生在Excel中無縫地進行蒙特卡羅模擬。

This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets.

The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk.

New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

作者簡介

羅傑·b·邁爾森，芝加哥大學經濟學和公共政策大衞·l·皮爾森傑出服務教授，2007年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主。

Roger B. Myerson is David L. Pearson Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Chicago and recipient of the 2007 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.